Pressures arising from climate change, population, industry and invasive non-native species can compound (see the Interactions between pressures and cumulative impacts section in the Biodiversity chapter). The addition of more pressures reduces the effectiveness of management efforts that target individual pressures, and can lead to a tipping point for ecosystem collapse (Dakos et al. 2019, Bergstrom et al. 2021). For Australia’s land environment, increasing climate change pressures are likely to compound and complicate the impacts of all other pressures such as altered fire regimes (Abram et al. 2021) and invasive species (Webber et al. 2014).
An example of the impact of compounding pressures is the Australian sandalwood tree (see case study: Australian sandalwood – native forest product or threatened species?, in the Plants section in the Overview chapter). Like many old-growth, slow-growing native species, it is affected by combinations of land-use and climate change stressors. Commercial harvest of wild populations has continued, despite only around 10% of their original extent remaining, and it appears that virtually no new trees have emerged in the wild for 60–100 years due to unsuitable establishment conditions (McLellan et al. 2021). Dramatic declines may be overlooked until a population crash becomes unequivocally evident, requiring urgent and reactive responses (e.g. Bayraktarov et al. 2021). Yet often the cascading signs of collapse can be predicted decades earlier from a basic understanding of the biology, ecology, land-use history, and altered climate and disturbance regimes, which may no longer provide the environmental conditions required for the species to persist (Burton et al. 2020). Understanding these cumulative impacts requires long-term detailed studies, combined with integrated monitoring methods (e.g. Lindenmayer & Taylor 2020, Sparrow et al. 2020).
An increasing number of studies are looking at the cumulative and coincident pressures of human modification of the land that directly or indirectly alter or impact natural areas (Kennedy et al. 2019). Kennedy et al. (2019), for example, found that moderately modified ecosystems dominate the terrestrial biosphere and fall within critical land-use thresholds (see also Theobald et al. 2020, Theobald et al. 2021). These and related analyses of the human footprint (e.g. Watson & Venter 2019, Beyer et al. 2020, Grantham et al. 2020, Williams et al. 2020b) highlight regions where proactive spatial planning is needed to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function before important environmental values are lost.