Assessments

Climate change is increasingly impacting human wellbeing, but currently we can engineer solutions and enhance community resilience to various aspects of climate change. We will increasingly need to see behavioural change rather than technical mitigation.

Better forecasting means that communities are typically aware of approaching storms in sufficient time to take appropriate action. Loss of life to cyclones has significantly decreased over the past century. Rapid response helps mitigate impacts.
Increasing speed of intensification and unpredictable storm behaviour are likely to limit our capacity for planned response.

Forecasting means that communities are, with notable exceptions, forewarned of potential flood and inundation events.
Increasing frequency of heavy rain may increase unpredictability, limiting our capacity to respond in a timely manner.

We are typically able to engineer solutions to manage wellbeing impacts of short-term heatwaves, although marginalised individuals and communities remain at risk. Heatwaves are the single biggest climate-related cause of human mortality in Australia.
Longer periods of high temperature are likely to exacerbate impacts.

Technology to predict bushfire behaviour and enhance infrastructure resilience is improving. Community preference for living in bushland settings is increasing potential exposure. Climate change is likely to increase bushfire risk, but ongoing investment in improving protection of communities could mitigate some risks.

We are already seeing the effects of climate change, and these generally lead to a reduction in environmental quality – that is, in the functioning of the natural environment or the resilience of the built environment.

Our infrastructure is built to accommodate statistically likely events. Our communities and industries are reasonably prepared for cyclones and storms. Increasing storm intensity or frequency, or extended distribution, may disrupt existing approaches.
Natural systems may not be resilient to increasing frequency of high-intensity storms.

Floods recharge some groundwater systems and stimulate environmental responses. Inhabiting floodplains puts communities and industries at risk of inundation.

Heatwaves currently cause short-term impacts in natural systems and can be ameliorated in many modified systems.
Some natural systems and wildlife are affected by heatwaves and have limited time or capacity to adapt.

Bushfires serve to clean and regenerate Country, within bounds of intensity, frequency and extent.
Permanent buildings, infrastructure and agriculture are poorly adapted to bushfire risk.

Climate change is apparent now in global, national and regional data. Modelling tells us that climate systems inertia will mean that change will increase for decades even if we do address the drivers of change.

Periods of increasing and decreasing storm activity are apparent in long-term historical and environmental records. Modelling suggests that storms and cyclones will become more intense, but not necessarily more frequent. Different models give different predictions for the extent to which tropical cyclones will track further south than they have tended to in the historical record.

Modelling and recent experience suggest that rainfall will become more intense, even if total rainfall decreases or the dry periods between events increase. This is likely to increase the frequency of flood events and their unpredictability.

The intensity and duration of heatwave events are already exceeding historical records. Modelling suggests that this will get worse.

Bushfires are a natural occurrence, but we have recorded unprecedented events recently. Modelling suggests that dangerous bushfire weather is likely to become more frequent, and the antecedent conditions for high-intensity bushfires are likely to become more common.

Limited long-term action to address the drivers of climate change internationally will ensure that impacts will continue to increase.

Warnings and engineering solutions are limiting the worst impacts on communities. Ongoing innovation is required to mitigate increasing risk.

Warnings and engineering solutions are limiting the worst impacts on communities. Ongoing innovation is required to mitigate increasing risk.

Warnings and engineering solutions are limiting the worst impacts on communities. Ongoing innovation is required to mitigate increasing risk. Environmental consequences are likely to increase in scale and impact.

Warnings and engineering solutions are limiting the worst impacts on communities. Significant new investment and national integration should improve our ability to manage risk.