Assessments

What are assessments?

Authors of the report assess various aspects of the environment and rate their status, the impact of pressures, the effectiveness of management, and the impact on our wellbeing. Assessments are based on the current science and literature and expert opinion, and authors also rate their confidence in the strength of the evidence that supports the assessment. 

Showing results 1 - 6 of 6
Assessment Temperature increases
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Adequate confidence

Temperatures over the Australian continent, and over the oceans surrounding Australia, have increased since 1910. Warming has continued over the past 5 years – the warmest years on record were experienced by the Australian land surface in 2019 and the sea surface in the Australian region in 2016.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target 13.2

Legend
How was this assessment made
For more information, go toTemperature
Assessment Rainfall changes
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Somewhat adequate confidence

Rainfall has decreased since 1970 in south-western and south-eastern Australia. The strongest decreases have been in the cool season, placing substantial stresses on water availability in those regions. Over the same period, rainfall has increased in north-western Australia. In other parts of Australia, a clear trend has not emerged outside natural variability. However, the 2017–19 drought was of unprecedented intensity in some regions, particularly in the northern Murray–Darling Basin.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target 13.2

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How was this assessment made
For more information, go toRainfall and snow
Assessment Sea level rise in the Australian region
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Adequate confidence
2016
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in good condition, resulting in stable environmental values, but the situation is deteriorating.

Global sea levels are continuing to rise at a rate of 3–3.5 millimetres per year. Rates of sea level rise since 1993 have been above the global average around many parts of the Australian coastline, but there is no clear indication that this will continue to be the case. Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target 13.2

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How was this assessment made
For more information, go toSea level
Assessment Extreme events
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Adequate confidence

Extreme events are generally increasing in frequency and severity, with the clearest changes occurring in temperature extremes and fire weather.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets 11.5, 13.1, 13.2, 15.3

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How was this assessment made
For more information, go toExtreme events
Assessment Temperature extremes
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Adequate confidence

The occurrence of high-temperature extremes has increased on a wide range of measures. Heatwaves that occurred in 2018–19 and 2019–20 were of record-breaking intensity and area. The occurrence of low-temperature extremes has broadly decreased, but the frequency of frosts has stabilised since the 1980s in parts of inland south-western and south-eastern Australia, which have experienced substantial cool-season rainfall decline.

Assessment Rainfall extremes
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is stable.
Adequate confidence

There is not yet a clear signal in the observed occurrence of most types of high-rainfall extremes, although there are indications of an increase in short-duration (less than a day) extremes (medium confidence). Extreme low rainfall has become more frequent in parts of south-western and south-eastern Australia that have experienced long-term declines in mean rainfall.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets 11.5, 13.1, 13.2, 15.3

Assessment Fire weather
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in poor condition, resulting in diminished environmental values, and the situation is deteriorating.
Adequate confidence

The occurrence of dangerous fire weather, as indicated by the Forest Fire Danger Index, has increased over many parts of Australia during the past 50 years (high confidence). This has been particularly manifested as a lengthening of the fire season in forested areas of southern Australia.

Assessment Tropical cyclones
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing the environment is in good condition, resulting in stable environmental values, and the situation is stable.
Adequate confidence

The frequency of tropical cyclones in the Australian region has decreased since the 1980s (medium confidence). At a global scale, there is evidence of an increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones that are intense, and in the amount of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, but no clear signal of these increases has yet emerged in the Australian region.

Assessment Greenhouse gas emissions in Australia
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing that pressures are high, meaning they moderately degrade the state of the environment, over a moderate extent and/or with moderate severity. The situation is stable.
Adequate confidence
2016
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that pressures were high, meaning they moderately degrade the state of the environment, over a moderate extent and/or with moderate severity. The trend was unclear.
2011
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that pressures were high, meaning they moderately degrade the state of the environment, over a moderate extent and/or with moderate severity. The trend was unclear.

Greenhouse gas emissions in Australia have decreased substantially from their 2007 peak, largely due to the land use, land-use change and forestry sector, which has changed from being a net source to a net sink, and the increase in the proportion of Australian electricity generated from renewable sources. Emissions in other sectors, particularly transport, stationary energy and fugitive emissions, have increased. Emissions were relatively stable from 2013 to 2019 before a sharp fall in 2020, some of which was due to the COVID-19 pandemic and is likely to be temporary.
It is unclear whether the further fall in emissions required for Australia to meet its nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement (a 26–28% decrease on 2005 levels by 2030) will occur.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets 7.2, 13.2

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How was this assessment made
For more information, go toGreenhouse gases
Assessment Effectiveness of management – greenhouse gases
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing that management is partially effective, meaning that management measures have limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation is stable.
Adequate confidence

Government policy, particularly at state and territory and local levels, is helping to reduce Australia’s emissions. However, Australian emissions are not declining at a sufficient rate to achieve benchmarks consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.
Related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets 7.2, 13.2

Legend
How was this assessment made
For more information, go toManagement approaches
Assessment Understanding of processes and projections
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing that management is effective, meaning that management measures maintain or improve the state of the environment, but pressures remain as significant factors that degrade environment values. The situation is improving.
Adequate confidence
2016
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was partially effective, meaning that management measures had limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation was improving.
2011
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was effective, meaning that management measures maintained or improved the state of the environment, but pressures remained as significant factors that degraded environment values. The situation was improving.

There is good understanding of broad processes, and improving confidence in modelling projections at both the national and regional scales. The national greenhouse emissions reporting system is continuing to improve.

Assessment Planning and process
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing that management is partially effective, meaning that management measures have limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation is stable.
Adequate confidence
2016
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was partially effective, meaning that management measures had limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation was stable.
2011
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was partially effective, meaning that management measures had limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation was improving.

National targets for greenhouse gas reductions (26–28% on 2005 levels by 2050) remain unchanged since 2016. All states and territories, and some local governments, have set net zero targets by 2050 or earlier, as has the Australian Government.
Australian Government strategies relating to climate change have been broadly similar since 2016, although there have been some changes to specific programs. All states and territories now have wide-ranging climate change strategies, although many are only in the early stages of implementation. There is also substantially increased engagement by local government, often with support from state government, in planning for climate change. Local government is especially important in climate change adaptation since many of the impacts of climate change fall within their area of responsibility. Collaboration between state and local government in this field is substantial in most states.

Assessment Outcomes
2021
2021 Assessment graphic showing that management is partially effective, meaning that management measures have limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The situation is stable.
Adequate confidence
2016
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was partially effective, meaning that management measures had limited impact on maintaining or improving the state of the environment. The trend was unclear.
2011
Assessment graphic from 2011 or 2016 showing that management was ineffective, meaning that management measures failed to stop substantial declines in the state of the environment. The trend was unclear.

Current and projected levels of success of national, and state and territory abatement programs suggest that 2020 targets (5% reduction below 2000 levels) have been achieved, even without including short-term reductions in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Australia’s nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement is for a reduction of 26–28% on 2005 levels by 2030. A further reduction of 6–8% on 2020 levels is required by 2030 to achieve an annual value in 2030 26−28% below 2005 levels, which will require a slightly faster annual rate of emissions reduction than that achieved between 2013 and 2019. A substantially increased rate of emissions reduction will be required to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.